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[null,"SDL Resource Unit","Bell Valley Alluvium (GS11)",null,null,null,"References","Reference No.","Reference code","Reference citation","Hyperlink"]
[]
["Stage 1: Update knowledge of groundwater flow system and threats to ESLT values","Climate","GS11 is located in the central-southeast region of the Macquarie-Castlereagh catchment (GW12), near the town of Wellington. Climate is temperate to semi-arid, with temperatures generally increasing from the mountains in the east to the plains of the west (NSW DPIE, 2022a). Rainfall is higher in the elevated southeast (>800 mm), while the lower plains to the northwest lie in a rain shadow and receive significantly less precipitation (360 mm; NSW DPIE, 2022a). The mean annual total (pan) evaporation ranges from 1410 mm in the southeast to 2200 mm in the northeast (NSW DPIE, 2022a; BoM, 2006). Monthly evaporation exceeds monthly rainfall throughout the year.\n\nAt Wellington (BoM station ID 65034), annual rainfall averages 621 mm (1991 - 2020) and is slightly higher in the warmer months (BoM, 2025).",null,null,null,"(NSW DPIE, 2022a) \n(BoM, 2006)\n(BoM, 2025)",1,"(NSW DPIE, 2022a)","NSW DPIE, 2022, Appendix A: Macquarie – Castlereagh Alluvium Water Resource Plan - Groundwater Resource Description, NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. Available from https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-alluvium-water-resource-plan, accessed on 31 January 2025.","https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-alluvium-water-resource-plan "]
[null,"Land use","In the Macquarie-Castlereagh catchment (GW12), over 70% is now used for grazing and 15% for dryland cropping (NSW DPIE, 2022a). While irrigated crops cover only 1% of the catchment, they are economically significant, supporting a major cotton industry downstream of Dubbo, alongside wheat, fodder, vegetables, vineyards around Mudgee, and high-value horticulture near Narromine-Trangie (NSW DPIE, 2022a). Forestry, conservation and other native landscapes together account for 10% of the catchment area (NSW DPIE, 2022a).\n\nGS11 extends 24 km along the lower Bell River upstream of Wellington. It is upstream (south) of Dubbo, the nearest regional centre (population of 38,000) (ABS, 2021).",null,null,null,"(NSW DPIE, 2022a)\n(ABS, 2021)",2,"(ABS, 2021)","ABS, 2021, Dubbo 2021 Census All persons QuickStats, available from https://abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/UCL112006, accessed 31 January 2025","https://abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/UCL112006 "]
[null,"Groundwater management","Macquarie–Castlereagh Alluvium Water Resource Plan (NSW DPIE, 2022b)\n\nWater Sharing Plan for the Macquarie–Castlereagh Groundwater Sources 2020 (NSW DPIE, 2022c). \nThe water sharing plan was made under section 50 of the Water Management Act 2000 and establishes rules and regulations for managing water extraction from GW12, ensuring sustainable use of the water resource by defining shares for different water users while also protecting the environmental health of the aquifer.\n\nMacquarie–Castlereagh Alluvium Water Quality Management Plan (NSW DPIE, 2022d)\n\nWaterNSW monitors groundwater level, pressure and quality through its network of groundwater observation bores across New South Wales.",null,null,null,"(NSW DPIE, 2022b)\n(NSW DPIE, 2022c)\n(NSW DPIE, 2022d)",3,"(BoM, 2006)","BoM, 2006, Average pan evaporation Annual, Bureau of Meteorology. Available from http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/evaporation/index.jsp, accessed on 22 January 2025.","http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/evaporation/index.jsp "]
[null,"Hydrogeological system description","The Bell Valley Alluvium consists of Cenozoic valley-fill unconsolidated sediments, extending 24 km along the lower Bell River upstream of Wellington. It shares its northern boundary with the Upper Macquarie Alluvial resource unit. It is an unconfined shallow aquifer system comprised of gravel, sand, silt, and clay. The floodplain varies from 300 m to 2 km in width, with sediment thickness ranging from 10 to 25 m. The aquifer is thickest east of the modern Bell River, though lower-permeability alluvium beyond this boundary is excluded from the resource unit (NSW DPIE, 2022a).\n\nThe Bell Valley Alluvium is underlain by the Lachlan Fold Belt, which has significantly lower permeability, limiting groundwater exchange. However, in the mid to lower reaches, the alluvium is hydraulically connected to the underlying limestone formation of the Lachlan Fold Belt, including the Wellington cave systems (NSW DPIE, 2022a).\n\nThe alluvium is hydraulically connected to the Bell River, with recharge primarily from rainfall infiltration and river leakage. Groundwater follows a northerly flow path along the Bell River and is of fresh quality, suitable for all uses. Yields range from 1 to 20 L/s, averaging around 10 L/s, whereas salinity ranges from 475 uS/cm to 780 uS/cm (NSW DPIE, 2022a).\n\nGroundwater is primarily used for irrigation (production) and stock and domestic use, with most of the bores concentrated immediately upstream of Wellington.",null,null,null,"(NSW DPIE, 2022a)",4,"(NSW DPIE, 2022b)","NSW DPE, 2022b, Macquarie–Castlereagh Alluvium Water Resource Plan, NSW Department of Planning and Environment. Available from https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-alluvium-water-resource-plan, accessed 31 January 2025","https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-alluvium-water-resource-plan "]
[null,"Groundwater system type","Unconfined alluvial aquifer",null,null,null,null,5,"(NSW DPIE, 2022c)","NSW DPIE, 2022c, Water Sharing Plan for the Macquarie–Castlereagh Groundwater Sources 2020, Schedule A, NSW Department of Planning and Environment. Available from https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-alluvium-water-resource-plan, accessed on 31 January 2025. ","https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-alluvium-water-resource-plan "]
[null,"Surface water description","The Bell River rises near Orange (NSW) and flows north-northwest. It is a tributary of the Macquarie River, joining the latter north of Wellington, and it is hydraulically connected to the GS11 alluvium. It is a perennial stream, although flows can vary substantially with seasonal rainfall. The Bell River flows through predominantly agricultural land, with irrigation being a major use of surface and groundwater resources.",null,null,null,null,6,"(MDBA, 2023)","MDBA, 2023, Macquarie–Castlereagh catchment, Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Australian Government, Last updated: 24 June 2023. Available at https://www.mdba.gov.au/basin/catchments/northern-basin-catchments/macquarie-castlereagh-catchment, accessed on 7 February 2025.","https://www.mdba.gov.au/basin/catchments/northern-basin-catchments/macquarie-castlereagh-catchment "]
[null,"SDL  (GL/year)",3.29,null,null,null,"(MDBA, 2012)",7,"(NSW DPIE, 2022d)","NSW DPIE, 2022d, Macquarie–Castlereagh Alluvium Water Quality Management Plan 2020, Schedule F, available from https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-alluvium-water-resource-plan, accessed on 31 January 2025. ","https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-alluvium-water-resource-plan "]
[null,"SDL unit area (km²)",20.687999999999999,null,null,null,"Based on groundwater SDL Resource Units maps. Available from https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dga-66e3efa7-fb5c-4bd7-9478-74adb6277955/details, accessed on 17 January 2025",8,"(BoM, 2025)","BoM, 2025, Climate statistics for Australian locations - WELLINGTON (D&J RURAL), Australian Government. Available from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/, accessed 5 February 2025.","http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/"]
[null,"Recharge (GL/year)",2.2999999999999998,null,null,null,"WAVES recharge modelling",9,"(MDBA, 2020)","MDBA, 2020, Transition Period Water Take Report 2018–19, Murray‒Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, C BY 4.0. Available from www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/transition-period-water-take-report-2018-19-full-report0.pdf, accessed on 17 January 2025","www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/transition-period-water-take-report-2018-19-full-report0.pdf"]
[null,"Extraction (Av. 2012/13-2022/23) (GL/year)","Recharge (SY1) = 2.3 (GL/year) (MDBA, 2020 b); Recharge Stage 2 estimate = 0.13 (GL/year) (Lee et al, 2024) ; Recharge diffuse only (SY2) = 0.39 (GL/year)  (Crosbie et al 2025) .",null,null,null,"(MDBA, 2020b)\n (Lee et al., 2024)\n (Crosbie et al., 2025) ",10,"(MDBA, 2021)","MDBA, 2021, Murray–Darling Basin sustainable diversion limit compliance outcomes 2019–20, Murray‒Darling Basin Authority Canberra, 2021. CC BY 4.0. Available from www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/murray-darling-basin-sustainable-diversion-limit-compliance-outcomes-2019-20-report.pdf, accessed on 17 January 2025.","www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/murray-darling-basin-sustainable-diversion-limit-compliance-outcomes-2019-20-report.pdf"]
[null,"Extraction trend (Av. 2012/13-2022/23)","Groundwater extraction in GS11 peaked at 1.91 GL in 2017–18 but has declined in recent years. From 2019–20 to 2022–23, extraction remained low—less than 10% of the SDL value—averaging about 0.33 GL per year. This trend reflects a strong sensitivity to wetter conditions, with demand significantly reduced during years of above-average rainfall.",null,null,null,null,11,"(MDBA, 2024)","MDBA, 2024, 2022–23 Sustainable Diversion Limit Accounts, Murray‒Darling Basin Authority, Canberra. CC BY 4.0. Available from www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/2022-23-sdl-accounts-registers-of-take_1.pdf, accessed on 17 January 2025.","www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/2022-23-sdl-accounts-registers-of-take_1.pdf"]
[null,"Location / density of extraction","The majority of production bores are found in the lower valley where the alluvium is thickest (NSW DPIE, 2022a), upstream of Wellington. Extraction is more dense in the northern portion of the catchment. There are many registered production bores that do not actively extract groundwater. The number of production bores exceeds the number of bores used solely for domestic and stock purposes. ",null,null,null,"(NSW DPIE, 2022a)",12,"(NSW DCCEEW, 2024)","NSW DCCEEW, 2024, Central West and Orana - Climate Change Snapshot,  Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. Available at https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-08/NARCliM2-Snapshot-CentralWestOrana.pdf, accessed 14 February 2025 ","https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-08/NARCliM2-Snapshot-CentralWestOrana.pdf "]
[null,"Description of ESLT values and potential threats","Productive Base","The storage volume of GS11 is 40.1 GL/year, and it has a low storage-to-recharge ratio of 17 (CSIRO and SKM 2010a). The number of licenced production bores (62) significantly outnumbers local water utility bores (3) and those used for domestic and stock purposes (14) (NSW DPIE, 2022a). Groundwater level monitoring in GS11 began in 2010 (NSW DPIE, 2022a). Metered groundwater extraction in GS11 has decreased since 2017/18. ",null,null,"(CSIRO and SKM 2010a)\n(NSW DPIE, 2022a)",13,"(NSW DPE, 2022f)","NSW DPE, 2022f, Macquarie–Castlereagh Alluvium Risk Assessment -  GW10 Water Resource Plan Area, NSW Department of Planning and Environment. Available from https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-alluvium-water-resource-plan, accessed on 31 January 2025.","https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/schedule-d-new-south-wales-macquarie%E2%80%93castlereagh-alluvium-risk-assessment.pdf "]
[null,null,"Connectivity","The Bell Valley Alluvium is highly connected to the Bell River (NSW DPIE, 2022a). The upper reach of the Bell River is characterised as sometimes losing and sometimes gaining (Crosbie et al., 2023a). The lower Bell River reach transitions to mostly losing as it flows toward the Macquarie River (Crosbie et al., 2023a). From 2013 to 2016, groundwater in GS11 showed small seasonal responses to irrigation (NSW DPIE, 2022a).\n\nIn the mid to lower reaches, the Bell Valley alluvium is hydraulically connected to the underlying limestone formation of the Lachlan Fold Belt, including the Wellington cave systems. The alluvial and fractured rock (limestone) aquifers exhibited identical rapid responses to moderate flood events that passed through the system in July 2016, indicating strong connectivity with the river (NSW DPIE, 2022a).",null,null,"(NSW DPIE, 2022a)\n(Crosbie et al., 2023a)",14,"(NSW DPIE, 2023)","NSW DPIE, 2023, Risk Assessment for the Macquarie–Castlereagh Surface Water Resource Plan Area (SW11) - Schedule D,  NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. Available from https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-water-resource-plan, accessed 14 February 2025.","https://www.mdba.gov.au/publications-and-data/publications/macquarie-castlereagh-water-resource-plan "]
[null,null,"GDEs","Potential riparian GDEs of high ecological value are mapped in the Bell Valley (NSW DPIE, 2022a). River red gum communities dominate the riparian zone, and they support a high number of recorded threatened bird and flora species (NSW DPIE, 2022a).",null,null,"(NSW DPIE, 2022a)\n",15,"(NSW DCCEEW, 2024)","NSW DCCEEW, 2024, Central West and Orana - Climate Change Snapshot,  Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. Available at https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-08/NARCliM2-Snapshot-CentralWestOrana.pdf, accessed 14 February 2025 ","https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-08/NARCliM2-Snapshot-CentralWestOrana.pdf "]
[null,null,"Water Quality","Groundwater in GS11 is relatively fresh due to its strong hydraulic connection with the Bell River, which allows for regular recharge and a relatively fast groundwater flow rate. Monitoring data is limited, with records from monitoring bores both spatially and temporally sparse. Available records indicate that salinity levels range between 425 and 780 µS/cm (NSW DPIE, 2022a).",null,null,"(NSW DPIE, 2022a)",16,"(CSIRO and SKM 2010a)","CSIRO and SKM 2010a, Sustainable Extraction Limits Derived from the Recharge Risk \nAssessment Method - New South Wales, Part 1, 2 and 3, CSIRO Canberra. "]
[null,"Influence of climate (historical and future projections) on ESLT values","Productive Base","Climate modelling predicts that annual average rainfall in the region will remain variable throughout this century and that, by 2090, average annual rainfall will decrease by 10% under a low-emissions scenario (NSW DCCEEW, 2024). The timing of rainfall is predicted to change too, with the largest decrease in rainfall expected to occur through Spring (17%-21 % by 2090; NSW DCCEEW, 2024). The region is predicted to experience an increase in hot days (> 35°C), which could cause enhanced evaporation (NSW DCCEEW, 2024). \n\nChanges in rainfall timing, and increased evapotranspiration can decrease both runoff into rivers and streams and direct infiltration into the alluvium. Climate change-driven reductions in infiltration and groundwater recharge may lead to reduced groundwater availability (NSW DPE, 2022f).\n\nRegarding future climate projections (2060), diffuse recharge in GS11 is expected to increase, on average, between 9.5% and 16.5 % relative to 1990 (MDSY2 Project data).",null,null,"(NSW DCCEEW, 2024)\n(Crosbie et al., 2023b)",17,"(MDBA, 2012)","MDBA, 2012, Basin Plan 2012 (Cth), Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Australian Government. Schedule 4. Available from https://www.legislation.gov.au/F2012L02240/latest/text, accessed 31 January 2025","https://www.legislation.gov.au/F2012L02240/latest/text "]
[null,null,"Connectivity","For recharge derived from floodplain inundation, GS11 is expected to observe a decrease in flood recharge between -12.1% and -18.2% (Crosbie et al., 2023b).  Crosbie et al. (2023b) also assessed the in-stream recharge derived from losses from the Castlereagh River. These losses will decrease due to climate change in the order of -4 % and -5.9 % compared to present recharge conditions. There is reduced confidence in the in-stream recharge estimates, as GS11 is a losing-connected system.",null,null,"(Crosbie et al., 2023b)",18,"(Crosbie et al., 2023a)","Crosbie R, Wang B, Kim S, Mateo C, and J Vaze, 2023a, Changes in the surface water – Groundwater interactions of the Murray-Darling basin (Australia) over the past half a century. Journal of Hydrology, 622, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129683"]
[null,null,"GDEs","Riparian vegetation might be impacted by reductions in floodplain and in-stream recharge.",null,null,null,19,"(Crosbie et al., 2023b)","Crosbie RS, Charles SP, Dawes W, Fu G, Rojas R, Hodgson G, Rassam D, Barry K and Pickett T, 2023b, Impact of climate change on groundwater in NSW - Assessment of the sensitivity of recharge and groundwater resources to a projected drying climate. CSIRO, Australia."]
[null,null,"Water Quality","A reduction in available floodplain and in-stream recharge might impact the flushing of salts, which might trigger an increase in groundwater salinity. This risk however was rated low in the state-based risk assessment.",null,null,null,20,"(CSIRO and SKM 2010a)","CSIRO and SKM 2010a, Sustainable Extraction Limits Derived from the Recharge Risk \nAssessment Method - New South Wales, Part 1, 2 and 3, CSIRO Canberra. "]
[null,"Data availability / uncertainty with respect to ESLT values and threats","Productive Base","Low data availability: Groundwater level monitoring since 2010, but only at a small number of bores, and no long term record locations in the south of the unit.",null,null,"AGE assessment of data availability\n",21,"(Crosbie et al 2025) ","Crosbie R, Doble R, Fu G, Campos Teixeira P, Pickett T, Devanand A, Ticehurst C, Gibbs M, Gunner W, Gonzalez D, Post D.\n\"Groundwater recharge modelling of the Murray-Darling Basin under historical and future climate conditions\". MDB Sustainable Yields 2, Module 3a. CSIRO Report, 2025."]
[null,null,"Connectivity","Low to Moderate data availability: Groundwater level monitoring at nested sites to understand interactions between alluvium and underlying limestone. However, not many of these sites are present in the unit. ",null,null,"AGE assessment of data availability\n",22,"(Lee et al, 2024)\n","Lee, S., Irvine, D. J., Duvert, C., Rau, G. C., and Cartwright, I.: A high-resolution map of diffuse groundwater recharge rates for Australia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1771–1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1771-2024, 2024.","https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/1771/2024/"]
[null,null,"GDEs","Low data availability: Potential GDEs and their associated High Ecological Value Aquatic Ecosystem (HEVAE) levels are mapped. It is unclear if ground truthing has occurred to validate mapping. No monitoring of groundwater-dependent vegetation extent and condition is proposed for GS11 under the WRPA as risk outcomes for GDE impacts are low (NSW DPIE, 2022b).  ",null,null,"AGE assessment of data availability\n(NSW DPIE, 2022b)"]
[null,null,"Water Quality","Low data availability: Monitoring data is limited with records from monitoring bores both spatially and temporally sparse. There is no current routine water quality monitoring (NSW DPIE, 2022b).",null,null,"AGE assessment of data availability\n(NSW DPIE, 2022b)"]
[null,"Existing condition assessments and findings","Productive Base","GS11 has a low storage-to-recharge ratio, causing it to be more sensitive to changes in recharge conditions, whether brought about by human activity or climate change. As floodplain and in-stream recharge rates decrease, the recharge towards the alluvial aquifer might decrease. Groundwater extraction has been low in recent years, but future increases in demand may impact seasonal water levels. GS11 showed small (<4 m) seasonal responses to irrigation between 2013 and 2016, and thus, changes to irrigation practices might also impact water levels. Groundwater is shallow, approximately 4 m below ground near the Apsley cross-section.",null,null,"AGE assessment"]
[null,null,"Connectivity","GS11 is highly connected to the Bell River. The river is variably gaining and losing in the upper reaches and mostly losing downstream. Rapid and identical responses in the alluvial and limestone aquifers during the July 2016 floods indicate strong connectivity with the river and the Wellington cave systems.",null,null,"AGE assessment"]
[null,null,"GDEs","High ecological value riverine GDEs are mapped within the Bell Valley. River Red Gum and other vegetation communities provide habitat to threatened bird species.",null,null,"AGE assessment"]
[null,null,"Water Quality","The groundwater is fresh due to the high connectivity between the Bell River and the alluvium.",null,null,"AGE assessment"]
[null,"Key findings from State-based risk assessment (and risk mitigation measures in place)","Productive Base","Qualitative risk assessment process applied.\nRisk to structural integrity of the groundwater system [R1]:\n> Inherent Risk: Low (M consequence; L likelihood) with H/L data confidence.\n* Mitigation measures in place: limits on location and rate of extraction + SDL + temporary access restrictions + trade limits.\n\nRisk of local drawdown reducing groundwater access by consumptive users [R3]:\n> Inherent Risk: Low (M consequence; L likelihood) with H/H data confidence. \n* Mitigation measures in place: monitoring + SDL + provision for temporary access restrictions + trade limits).\n\nRisk of increases in irrigation efficiency and improved water delivery, reducing recharge [R7]:\n> Inherent Risk: Medium (H consequence; L likelihood) with H/L data confidence.\n> Residual Risk: Medium - tolerable (with monitoring + SDL).\n\n• Assessed risks that pertain to groundwater extraction, reducing water availability include:\n               • Risk of growth in Basic Landholder Rights reducing groundwater availability [R5]: \n                             > Inherent Risk: High (H consequence; M likelihood) with H/M confidence.\n                             > Residual Risk: High - tolerable (with provisions for SDL + temporary access restrictions + trade limits)\n               • Risk of growth in Local Water Utilities reducing groundwater availability [R6]:\n                             > Inherent Risk: High (H consequence; M likelihood) with H/H confidence.\n                             > Residual Risk: High - tolerable (with provisions for SDL + temporary access restrictions + trade limits)\n               • Risk of climate change reducing recharge and groundwater availability [R4]:\n                             > Inherent Risk: High (H consequence; H likelihood) with H/L confidence.\n                             > Residual Risk: High - tolerable (with monitoring + SDL)\n               • Risk of growth in mining reducing groundwater availability [QL4]: \n                             > Inherent Risk: Low with M data confidence. Existing controls are sufficient. \n                             * Mitigation measures in place: monitor groundwater resources and GDEs.\n\n• The risk of growth in plantation forestry intercepting recharge [R8] was considered further in the surface water risk assessment, where it was rated low risk. Therefore, no mechanisms have been implemented under the WM Act (NSW DPIE, 2023).\n• The risk of sediment compaction impacting surface water users [QL1] was assessed but not discussed here. The risk is covered by R1 (risk to structural integrity of the groundwater system). \n• In the surface water risk assessment, the risks of insufficient surface water (both regulated and unregulated) impacting priority groundwater assets and functions were rated Low, with medium to high data confidence (NSW DPIE, 2023).",null,null,"(NSW DPE, 2022f)"]
[]
[null,null,"Connectivity","Qualitative risk assessment process applied. \nRisk of groundwater extraction impacting water users in adjacent groundwater systems [QL2]: \nQuantitative assessment of this risk has not been possible due to a lack of likelihood data. It was qualitatively assessed based on a groundwater expert's opinion (Department of Planning and Environment - Water). As such, the risk outcomes have low data confidence according to the criteria in Table 2-5. \n> Risk outcome: Nil - QAL. \n> Justification: \"The permeability of the Gunnedah-Oxley Basin (GS17), Sydney Basin (GS41) and Lachlan Fold Belt (GS20) is many orders of magnitude lower than that of the alluvium and not compressible from changes in hydraulic pressure. As a result, there would be nil risk to the structural integrity of these resource units as a result of pumping. The low permeability and limited thickness of the GAB at some locations limit the potential for groundwater pumping impacts on the structural integrity of either the NSW GAB Surat Shallow resource unit (GS34) or non-Basin GAB resources, and nil risk outcomes have been assigned.\"\n\nRisk of groundwater extraction causing local drawdown, impacting instream ecological values [R10]:\n> Inherent Risk: Low (L consequence; L likelihood) with H/H data confidence. \n*  Mitigation measures in place: limits on location and rate of extraction + SDL + temporary access restrictions + trade limits.\n\nRisk of climate change reducing recharge and groundwater availability, impacting instream ecological values [R14]:\n> Inherent Risk: Medium (L consequence; H likelihood) with H/L data confidence. \n> Residual Risk: Medium (with SDL + monitoring + temporary access restrictions + trade limits).\n\n"]
[null,null,"GDEs","Qualitative risk assessment process applied.\nRisk of groundwater extraction causing local drawdown, impacting GDEs [R9]:\n> Inherent Risk: Low (M consequence; L likelihood) with H/H confidence.\n* Mitigation measures in place: provision for setback distances for new bores from high priority GDEs and rivers + limits on rate of extraction + SDL + temporary access restrictions + trade limits.\n\nRisk of climate change reducing recharge and groundwater availability to GDEs [R13]:\n> Inherent Risk: High (M consequence; H likelihood) with H/L confidence. \n> Residual Risk: High - tolerable (with SDL + monitoring + temporary access restrictions + trade limits).\n\nRisk of poor water quality to the environment, impacting GDES and instream ecological values [QL5]:\nLack of likelihood and consequence data, therefore, the risk was qualitatively assessed.\n> Risk outcome: Low - QAL, low data confidence. \n\nRisk of growth in plantation forestry intercepting recharge impacting GDEs [R11] and impacting instream ecological values [R12]:\n> Risk outcome: Nil as there is no predicted growth in nearby plantation forestry areas.\n\nRisk of growth in basic landholder rights and local water utilities to the environment (GDEs and instream ecological values) [QL6]:\n> Risk outcome: nil – QAL as there is no pathway for environmental impact to occur.\n\nRisk of growth in mining intercepting recharge (GDEs and instream ecological values) [QL7]:\n> Risk outcome: Low based on the outcomes of the Bioregional Assessments Program, which found  there is limited potential for further coal mine development and there is no previous or current coal seam gas extraction in the area."]
[null,null,"Water Quality","Qualitative risk assessment process applied.\nThe risk of groundwater extraction inducing connection with poor quality groundwater [R2]: \n> Inherent Risk: Low (M consequence; L likelihood) with H/M confidence. \n*  Mitigation measures in place: SDL + monitoring of groundwater resources and dependent ecosystems + temporary access restrictions + trade limits.\n\n"]
[]
["Stage 2: Prioritisation of SDL Unit","E/SDL",0.29870129870129869]
[null,"SDL/R",25.12]
[null,"Sequence group",2]
[]
["Stage 3: Application of filters for condition assessment","Rulesets applied to obtain areas of assets for condition assessment","Area of extraction","Licenced points of extraction + 5km buffer"]
[null,null,"Productive Base","Areas within 5 km of a licensed extraction."]
[null,null,"Connectivity","Areas within 5 km from a gauged river reach (Crosbie et al., 2023) that are within 5 km of licensed extraction."]
[null,null,"GDEs","Areas in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers + Areas within 5 km of licensed extraction sites and 5 km from a relevant potential GDE, excluding areas within a 5 km distance of monitoring bores where the groundwater level in the GDE is >15 metres depth in at least one of the measurements."]
[null,null,"Water Quality","Areas within 5 km of licensed extraction, excluding areas within a 5 km distance of monitoring bores where salinity exceeds 4,478 µS/cm (3,000 mg/L) at any time."]
[]
["Stage 4: Analysis of resource condition indicators"]
[null,"Describe RCIs (primary and supplementary)","Productive Base","Connectivity","GDEs","Water Quality"]
[null,"RCI","Groundwater level",null,null,"Groundwater salinity (EC)"]
[null,"Long term deteriorating RCI definition","Declining trend in groundwater level between 1974 and 2024 (50 years of data).\nMann-Kendall trend analysis, excluding bores with five or fewer level measurements",null,null,"Increasing trend in groundwater salinity between 1974 and 2024 (50 years of data).\nMann-Kendall trend analysis, excluding bores with three or fewer salinity measurements"]
[null,"Short term deteriorating RCI definition ","Declining trend in groundwater level between 2012 and 2024 (12 years of data).\nMann-Kendall trend analysis, excluding bores with five or fewer level measurements",null,null,"Increasing trend in groundwater salinity between 2012 and 2024 (12 years of data).\nMann-Kendall trend analysis, excluding bores with three or fewer salinity measurements"]
[null,"Area of asset (km2)",348230437.10933721,363259636.41486621,343872036.2140131,348230437.10933721,null,null,"X","Y"]
[null,"GS11",null,null,null,null,null,null,0,0]
[null,"Area of RCI deteriorating (Long term) ",0,0,0,0,null,null,50,100]
[null,"Area of RCI deteriorating (Short term) ",0,0,0,0,null,null,100,0]
[null,"Area of RCI improving (Long term)",213824764.63284081,214384971.94170499,213330782.60779339,0,null,null,0,0]
[null,"Area of RCI improving (Short term)",213824764.63284081,214384971.94170499,213330782.60779339,0]
[null,"Area of insufficient data or no data (Long term)",134405672.4764964,148874664.47316122,130541253.60621971,348230437.10933721]
[null,"Area of insufficient data or no data (Short term)",134405672.4764964,148874664.47316122,130541253.60621971,348230437.10933721]
[]
[null,"%Area of RCI deteriorating (Long term) ",0,0,0,0]
[null,"%Area of RCI deteriorating (Short term) ",0,0,0,0]
[null,"%Area of RCI improving (Long term)",0.61403238156837003,0.59017008896871592,0.62037839702389841,0]
[null,"%Area of RCI improving (Short term)",0.61403238156837003,0.59017008896871592,0.62037839702389841,0]
[null,"%Area of insufficient data or no data (Long term)",0.38596761843163002,0.40982991103128408,0.37962160297610159,1]
[null,"%Area of insufficient data or no data (Short term)",0.38596761843163002,0.40982991103128408,0.37962160297610159,1]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,"Trend grouping","Improving / stable trends","Improving / stable trends","Improving / stable trends","Insufficient data"]